As many of us wind down on what has been a fascinating and simultaneously challenging business calendar year – and as we start preparing for 2025, I would like to share some trigger thoughts and insights with you on what the near and mid-term future could look like.
For today, let’s start with a topic that is probably the most controversial, luckily is still a number of years out, but equally has the most disruption potential both globally and specifically in our own country (with an unemployment rate that has resulted in poverty and distress levels for a significant proportion of our population).
Elon Musk is on record predicting that by 2040 there will be 10 billion humanoid robots on earth – significantly more robots than humans. And the cost of a humanoid robot by then is predicted to be in the region of $30 000 – significantly cheaper than the majority of cars being driven around Cape Town and Johannesburg today.
The current cost of such a humanoid robot is approximately 10 times that amount, admittedly currently with a limited scope functionality, but with a trending decrease in the cost of between 20% and 40% a year. Simultaneously, the increases in capability of both AI and Robotics are trending similar to or even slightly better than Moore’s Law (i.e. doubling in capacity or capability every 18 months) and are resulting in a rapid increase in humanoid robotic functional capability.
This could well result in a highly functional humanoid robot, more capable than yourself in many areas (sorry, but it’s true), being available to work for you 24x7x365, battery charged as long there is any form of light available, and much cheaper than your current car – by 2030.
This robot will do homework together with your children much better than you, cook the family dinner better than you, clean your house and do the laundry and ironing better than you, and perform many DIY fixes faster than you – every day. And that’s just to start with.
Sound far-fetched? Consider that the first humanoid robot has already been granted citizenship in the country in which she “resides”. Her name is Sophia, she was built by Hanson Robotics, activated on Valentine’s Day of 2016 (there has to be some twisted humour behind that decision), and granted Saudi Arabian citizenship in October 2017. She is a United Nations Development Programme Innovation Champion – and for the techie geeks out there, 70% of her functional capability is based on Open Source code!
This raises so many questions at an ethical, practical and socio-economic level. Can a humanoid robot travel between countries – and if so, is she packed in a box in the hold – or does she sit in a seat in the cabin of the plane? Will the other passengers feel safe travelling with a robot on board – or even sitting next to them on a flight? Will you be able to converse with them – and will there be topics of conversation that are taboo or no-go areas for discussion? Can you have a flight with more robots than humans on board? How will they go through passport control – and what happens if they fail a passport control check?
More importantly, how does this impact our domestic workforce and the workforces of companies that provide daily and after-hour cleaning services to so many businesses in our country? This is a significant concern on so many levels.
Luckily, we don’t have to answer these questions today, but we certainly need to start considering how we will deal with them when they do become a reality within the next 5 to 6 years.
Should you have any questions about your AI journey, contact us.